本日9月1日は防災の日です。
今から103年前。1923年、大正12年9月1日午前11時58分、相模トラフを震源とするマグニチュード7.9の大正関東地震が発生しました。死者・行方不明者は約10万5千人。東京、横浜を中心に南関東は甚大な被害を受けました。
ちょうど昨年が昭和100年にあたりましたので、昭和史を10年刻みで振り返る勉強会を定期的に開いていました。関東大震災が起きた約100年前、日本はこのような情勢にありました。
1919年 第一次世界大戦後、パリ講和会議に戦勝国として参加
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1920年 国際連盟発足、常任理事国として国際秩序を担う主要国へ
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1921〜22年 ワシントン会議と軍縮体制を受け入れる
（1902年以来、日本外交の安全保障上の大きな支柱だった日英同盟が終了し、日米英仏による四カ国条約へ移行した）
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1920年代 幣原外交・国際協調
（軍事力による中国進出よりも英米との協調と経済関係を重視し、国際秩序の中で大国としての地位を維持しようとした）
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1923年 関東大震災
（当時のGNPの3分の1以上に相当する甚大な経済被害。帝都復興が進む一方、震災手形など金融面の歪みを残した）
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1927年 昭和金融恐慌
（震災後に先送りされていた不良債権問題などが表面化し、銀行の休業や破綻が相次いだ）
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1929年 世界恐慌
（米国発の世界的経済危機が日本にも波及。輸出と農村経済が大きな打撃を受けた）
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1931年 満州事変
（関東軍が満州で軍事行動を拡大。外交における軍部の影響力が増し、ワシントン体制との齟齬が決定的になっていく）
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1932年 満州国建国・五・一五事件
（満州国建国によって中国との対立が深まり、犬養毅首相暗殺によって政党内閣の時代も事実上終わった）
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1933年 国際連盟脱退を通告
（満州問題をめぐる国際連盟の判断を日本が受け入れず、国際秩序を作る側にいた日本が、その秩序から離れ始める象徴的な出来事となった）
関東大震災について調べていて、あらためて驚いた数字があります。
震災による経済被害は約55億円。当時の日本のGNPは約150億円ですから、被害額はGNPの3分の1を超える規模でした。推計によって多少の差がありますが、約35〜37％に達します。
現在の日本で、1年間に国全体が生み出す経済価値の3分の1に相当する資産が、一つの災害で失われると考えると、その規模がわかります。
ちなみに阪神・淡路大震災の被害額は当時のGDP比で約2％、東日本大震災でも約3〜4％です。経済規模に対する関東大震災の打撃は桁違いでした。当時の一般会計予算と比較しても、被害額はその3倍を超えていました。
そして興味深いのは、この震災を挟んだ20年間に、日本の政治、経済、外交が大きく変わっていることです。
震災前の日本は、むしろ国際社会へ積極的に入っていこうとしていました。
第一次世界大戦には連合国側として参戦し、戦勝国となります。1919年のパリ講和会議にも主要国として参加し、翌1920年に国際連盟が発足すると常任理事国となりました。
当時の日本は国際社会から孤立していたのではありません。イギリス、フランス、イタリアなどと並び、国際秩序を運営する側にいました。
1921年から22年にかけて開かれたワシントン会議では、アメリカ、イギリス、日本などが海軍軍縮について話し合います。主力艦の保有比率は米5、英5、日3。日本国内には不満もありましたが、政府はこれを受け入れました。
また、中国の主権や領土保全、門戸開放を確認する九カ国条約にも参加しています。
1902年以来続いていた日英同盟も終了し、一国との軍事同盟から多国間協調へと外交の軸を移していきます。
この時代を代表したのが幣原喜重郎です。中国への軍事的拡張よりも経済関係を重視し、英米との協調を維持する外交を進めました。
国内でも大きな変化が起きています。
第一次世界大戦による大戦景気で工業化が進み、都市人口が増加しました。1918年の米騒動の後には原敬内閣が成立し、政党政治が本格化します。
普通選挙運動、労働運動、女性解放運動なども広がりました。いわゆる大正デモクラシーです。
つまり1923年の日本は、国内では政党政治と大衆社会が発展し、国外では国際協調の枠組みに積極的に参加していた時代でした。
そこに関東大震災が起きます。
東京と横浜の都市機能は大きく破壊されましたが、その後の帝都復興によって道路、橋、公園、区画整理などが進みました。震災は東京を破壊した一方で、現在につながる近代都市東京を作り直す契機にもなります。
経済面でも、GNPの3分の1を超える被害を受けたにもかかわらず、翌1924年には復興需要と設備更新によって経済はかなり早く反発しました。
ただし、問題も残ります。
震災手形の処理などによって、不良債権や経営不振企業の問題が先送りされました。これが1927年の金融恐慌につながる背景の一つになります。震災後の金融支援は当面の金融秩序を維持した一方、不良企業を温存する結果にもなったのです。
政治も、震災を境に直ちに右傾化したわけではありません。
1925年には普通選挙法が成立し、25歳以上の男子に広く選挙権が与えられました。
一方、同じ1925年に治安維持法も成立しています。
政治参加の範囲を広げる一方で、国家体制を脅かすと考えられた思想への規制を強化する。1920年代の日本には、民主化と統制が同時に存在していました。
そして経済情勢が急速に悪化します。
1927年の金融恐慌、1929年の世界恐慌、1930年からの昭和恐慌。特に農村経済の疲弊は深刻でした。
それと並行して、政党政治への不信も強まっていきます。
外交にも大きな変化が起こります。
1931年、満州事変。
翌1932年には満州国が成立します。
国際連盟はリットン調査団を派遣し、日本の軍事行動と満州国成立の経緯を調査しました。
1933年2月、国際連盟総会で満州問題に関する報告書が採決されます。
賛成42、反対1、棄権1。
反対した一国が日本でした。
日本代表団は議場を退場し、同年3月27日、日本政府は国際連盟からの脱退を正式に通告します。
1920年、日本は国際連盟の常任理事国でした。
それが13年後には、42対1です。
この変化は大きい。
1910年代から1920年代初頭、日本は国際社会の中で自国の地位を高め、国際秩序を担う主要国になろうとしていました。
ところが1930年代に入ると、国際社会との協調よりも、満州における自国の安全保障と権益を優先する方向へ進みます。
1932年には五・一五事件で犬養毅首相が暗殺され、政党内閣の時代も事実上終わりました。
関東大震災の10年前、日本では政党政治が伸び始め、国際協調へ向かっていました。
震災の10年後、日本では政党内閣が終わり、国際連盟からの離脱を決めています。
もちろん、関東大震災が日本を軍国主義へ向かわせた、と直接結びつけることはできません。
震災後にも普通選挙は実現していますし、幣原外交も続きました。
ただ、日本はGNPの3分の1を超える経済的損失を受け、その処理の過程で金融問題を抱え、さらに世界恐慌が重なります。
同じ時期、第一次世界大戦後に成立した国際協調体制そのものも、各国の経済危機とナショナリズムの高まりによって揺らいでいました。
関東大震災は、その大きな時代変化のほぼ中央にあります。
1913年。
大正デモクラシーが始まり、第一次世界大戦を経て、日本は国際社会の主要国へ。
1923年。
GNPの3分の1以上に相当する被害を受けた関東大震災。
1933年。
国際連盟脱退を通告。
そして、その12年後の1945年、日本は敗戦を迎えます。
関東大震災を自然災害としてだけ見れば、1923年9月1日の出来事です。
しかし前後10年まで視野を広げてみると、政治、経済、都市、外交のすべてが大きく動いた時代の、ほぼ中央にこの震災があったことがわかります。
防災の日に関東大震災を振り返るのであれば、地震そのものだけではなく、その時、日本という国がどこにいて、その後どこへ向かっていったのか。
そこまで見てみると、関東大震災という出来事が少し違って見えてきます。
Japan Transformed: The Decade Before and After the Great Kanto Earthquake
Today, September 1, is Disaster Prevention Day in Japan.
One hundred and three years ago, on September 1, 1923, at 11:58 a.m., the Great Kanto Earthquake struck. With its epicenter along the Sagami Trough, the earthquake had a magnitude of 7.9. Approximately 105,000 people were killed or went missing, and the southern Kanto region, particularly Tokyo and Yokohama, suffered catastrophic damage.
Last year marked the 100th year of the Showa era, and I had been holding regular study sessions looking back at modern Japanese history in ten-year increments. Looking at the period around a century ago, when the Great Kanto Earthquake occurred, Japan was in the midst of a remarkable transformation.
1919
Japan participated in the Paris Peace Conference as one of the victorious Allied powers following World War I.
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1920
The League of Nations was established, and Japan became a permanent member of its Council, emerging as one of the major powers responsible for shaping the international order.
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1921–22
Japan participated in the Washington Conference and accepted a new framework for naval arms limitation.
(The Anglo-Japanese Alliance, which had been one of the main pillars of Japan’s security policy since 1902, came to an end and was replaced by the Four-Power Treaty involving Japan, the United States, Britain, and France.)
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The 1920s
The era of Shidehara diplomacy and international cooperation.
(Rather than pursuing military expansion into China, Japan emphasized cooperation with Britain and the United States and the development of economic ties, seeking to maintain its position as a major power within the international order.)
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1923
The Great Kanto Earthquake.
(The economic damage was enormous, exceeding one-third of Japan’s GNP at the time. While reconstruction of the imperial capital progressed, the disaster also left behind serious financial distortions, including the problem of earthquake-related bills.)
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1927
The Showa Financial Crisis.
(Problems such as nonperforming loans that had been postponed in the aftermath of the earthquake came to the surface, leading to a succession of bank closures and failures.)
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1929
The Great Depression.
(The global economic crisis that began in the United States spread to Japan, severely affecting exports and the rural economy.)
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1931
The Manchurian Incident.
(The Kwantung Army expanded its military operations in Manchuria. The influence of the military over foreign policy grew, and the conflict between Japan and the Washington system became increasingly difficult to reconcile.)
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1932
The establishment of Manchukuo and the May 15 Incident.
(The creation of Manchukuo deepened Japan’s confrontation with China, while the assassination of Prime Minister Tsuyoshi Inukai effectively brought the era of party cabinets to an end.)
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1933
Japan announced its withdrawal from the League of Nations.
(Japan rejected the League’s judgment over the Manchurian question. A country that had once been part of the leadership of the international order was now beginning to distance itself from that very order.)
While researching the Great Kanto Earthquake, I came across a number that once again struck me as extraordinary.
The economic damage caused by the earthquake was estimated at approximately ¥5.5 billion. Japan’s GNP at the time was around ¥15 billion, meaning that the damage amounted to more than one-third of the country’s entire annual economic output.
Estimates vary somewhat, but the figure is generally placed at roughly 35–37 percent.
To put that into perspective, imagine Japan today losing assets equivalent to one-third of the economic value generated by the entire country in a single year because of a single disaster. That gives us some sense of the scale.
By comparison, the damage caused by the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake amounted to roughly 2 percent of Japan’s GDP at the time, while the Great East Japan Earthquake was equivalent to approximately 3–4 percent.
The economic blow inflicted by the Great Kanto Earthquake was on an entirely different scale.
Even compared with the government’s general budget at the time, the damage exceeded three times the annual budget.
What is particularly interesting, however, is what happened to Japan during the twenty years surrounding the earthquake.
Japan before the earthquake was, in many respects, a country actively seeking to become more deeply integrated into the international community.
Japan entered World War I on the side of the Allies and emerged as one of the victorious powers. At the 1919 Paris Peace Conference, it participated as one of the major powers. When the League of Nations was established the following year, Japan became one of its permanent Council members.
Japan was not isolated from the international community at this time.
Quite the opposite.
Alongside Britain, France, and Italy, Japan was among the countries helping to shape and manage the international order.
At the Washington Conference of 1921–22, the United States, Britain, Japan, and other powers discussed naval arms limitations.
The agreed ratio for capital ships was 5 for the United States, 5 for Britain, and 3 for Japan.
There was considerable dissatisfaction within Japan, but the government ultimately accepted the arrangement.
Japan also joined the Nine-Power Treaty, which reaffirmed principles concerning China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the Open Door policy.
The Anglo-Japanese Alliance, which had continued since 1902, came to an end. Japan’s diplomatic orientation was shifting from a bilateral military alliance toward multilateral cooperation.
One of the leading figures of this era was Kijuro Shidehara.
Rather than pursuing military expansion into China, he emphasized economic relations and sought to maintain cooperation with Britain and the United States.
Major changes were taking place inside Japan as well.
The economic boom generated by World War I accelerated industrialization and increased the urban population.
Following the Rice Riots of 1918, the cabinet of Takashi Hara was formed, marking the full-fledged rise of party politics.
Movements for universal suffrage, workers’ rights, and women’s liberation also gained momentum.
This was the era known as Taisho Democracy.
In other words, Japan in 1923 was a country in which party politics and mass society were developing at home while, abroad, it was actively participating in frameworks of international cooperation.
And then the Great Kanto Earthquake struck.
The urban infrastructure of Tokyo and Yokohama was devastated.
Yet the reconstruction of the imperial capital that followed led to the development of roads, bridges, parks, and urban land readjustment projects.
The earthquake destroyed Tokyo, but it also became an opportunity to rebuild the city into the modern metropolis that would eventually lead to today’s Tokyo.
Economically, too, despite suffering damage equivalent to more than one-third of GNP, Japan’s economy rebounded relatively quickly in 1924, driven by reconstruction demand and investment in new equipment.
But the earthquake also left problems behind.
The handling of earthquake-related bills and other emergency financial measures postponed the resolution of nonperforming loans and financially distressed companies.
This became one of the factors underlying the financial crisis of 1927.
Financial support after the earthquake helped preserve financial stability in the short term, but it also had the unintended effect of keeping troubled companies alive.
Politics, too, did not immediately turn to the right simply because of the earthquake.
In 1925, the Universal Manhood Suffrage Act was enacted, extending the right to vote to men aged 25 and over on a broad basis.
At the same time, however, the Peace Preservation Law was enacted that same year.
The scope of political participation was being expanded, while restrictions on ideas considered threatening to the existing state system were simultaneously being strengthened.
Democratization and political control existed side by side in Japan during the 1920s.
Then the economic situation deteriorated rapidly.
The financial crisis of 1927, the Great Depression of 1929, and the Showa Depression beginning in 1930 placed enormous pressure on the Japanese economy.
The devastation of the rural economy was particularly severe.
At the same time, distrust in party politics continued to grow.
Foreign policy also began to change dramatically.
In 1931 came the Manchurian Incident.
The following year, Manchukuo was established.
The League of Nations dispatched the Lytton Commission to investigate Japan’s military actions in Manchuria and the circumstances surrounding the establishment of Manchukuo.
In February 1933, the League’s General Assembly voted on the report concerning the Manchurian question.
The result was:
42 in favor.
1 against.
1 abstention.
The one country that voted against it was Japan.
The Japanese delegation walked out of the chamber.
On March 27 of the same year, the Japanese government formally notified the League of Nations of its withdrawal.
In 1920, Japan had been one of the permanent members of the League of Nations.
Thirteen years later, the vote was 42 to 1.
The change was extraordinary.
From the 1910s through the early 1920s, Japan had sought to strengthen its position within the international community and become one of the major powers responsible for maintaining the international order.
But once the 1930s began, Japan increasingly prioritized its own security interests and strategic position in Manchuria over cooperation with the international community.
In 1932, Prime Minister Tsuyoshi Inukai was assassinated in the May 15 Incident, effectively bringing the era of party cabinets to an end.
Ten years before the Great Kanto Earthquake, Japan was moving toward stronger party politics and greater international cooperation.
Ten years after the earthquake, party government had effectively ended, and Japan had decided to withdraw from the League of Nations.
Of course, it would be too simplistic to say that the Great Kanto Earthquake directly pushed Japan toward militarism.
Universal suffrage was introduced even after the earthquake, and Shidehara diplomacy continued for some time.
But Japan had suffered economic losses exceeding one-third of its GNP. In dealing with the aftermath, it accumulated financial problems, and then the Great Depression struck on top of them.
At the same time, the system of international cooperation established after World War I was itself beginning to crumble as economic crises and rising nationalism destabilized countries around the world.
The Great Kanto Earthquake occurred almost exactly at the midpoint of this enormous historical transformation.
1913.
Taisho Democracy was beginning. After World War I, Japan emerged as a major power in the international community.
1923.
The Great Kanto Earthquake inflicted damage equivalent to more than one-third of Japan’s GNP.
1933.
Japan announced its withdrawal from the League of Nations.
And twelve years later, in 1945, Japan was defeated in World War II.
If we look at the Great Kanto Earthquake simply as a natural disaster, it was an event that occurred on September 1, 1923.
But if we widen our perspective to include the decade before and the decade after, we can see that the earthquake occurred almost exactly at the center of a period when Japan’s politics, economy, cities, and foreign policy were all undergoing profound change.
On Disaster Prevention Day, when we look back on the Great Kanto Earthquake, perhaps we should consider not only the earthquake itself, but also where Japan stood at that moment—and where the country was heading afterward.
Seen from that broader perspective, the Great Kanto Earthquake begins to look like something more than a natural disaster.
It becomes a window into a Japan undergoing one of the most consequential transformations in its modern history.
